I have posted this question on another forum but hoped that I may be able to get a different
perspective from other people.
I have been working on a problem that requires being able to calculate the chances
of any winnng a series of coin tosses with a weighted coin.
The coin has for arguments sake a 65% / 35% chance of
landing heads or tails and to win the game you need to hit your side 9 times.
Can you use excel to calculate
things like: If heads takes the lead 1-0, what does that mean the its overall percentage chance of winning? If the score is
7-3 to tails, what are the chances of either side gaining victory? etc, etc.
I thought that there would be a way
of setting up a spreadsheet that listed the goal (first to 9, 12, 15 or whatever) and below this the percentage chance of
heads and the percentage chance of tails. Then somewhere would be a box to enter the current score (0-0, 3-5, 1-1 or
whatever) and beside this the current chance of heads or tails gaining victory.
I've tried setting up something
like this but am a bit of a dufus when it comes to knowing how, where and when to use the different functions of excel.
Would anyone be able to give me a hand in how to set up something like this?
Thanks in advance for any
Here is the link to the same question on another board http://www.mrexcel.com/forum/showthread.php?t=340808